Some Mafia Game Day 1

Discuss Day 1 happenings here.

I LOVE CUPCAKES

So whos actually in this.

Incog, myself, Ver, Radfield, chaoser, Hesmyrr, Dreamflower. That's the list at the time of writing.

Incog sent out PMs to a few others, but I have not talked to Incog since then so I do not know the status of these folk.

And an idea just occurred to me. What if we permanently use this forum for all of our round tables? That way everyone can know about it and can reference it in the future, as opposed to having to create separate forums every single time we do this. Of course when a new round table starts, we just block the sub-forum/thread so only those that are participating in the round table can see it. So if I'm playing in a game I can still reference the old round tables, but I'll be blocked out of the current one.

MEOW =3

Reporting in. I'll go read the thread closer now.

...aaaaand, that was quick. I'll give my thoughts once stuff actually happens. We're just trying to dissect the game, look at good/bad players, etc. right?

BB wrote:Reporting in. I'll go read the thread closer now.

...aaaaand, that was quick. I'll give my thoughts once stuff actually happens. We're just trying to dissect the game, look at good/bad players, etc. right?

Pretty much. So far it's just everyone throwing around random votes.

One very likely possibility for town roles are Vigis that die if they mishoot. Ace stated in the postgame of Personality mafia that he would be using this in his next game

I don't know how difficult it will be to close off certain threads to certain accounts but if it isn't too hard, we can do that. Will be a Pansy Cupcake Round Table though...

Basically, we are trying to analyze the game from both the town and mafia point of view (we have imperfect information to do the mafia point of view, but there are certainly things that can be said) while it is ongoing. We can discuss structure if anyone has any input.

First is a basic analysis of who is mafia and who is clearly innocent. And although we cannot actually influence the game, I think it might be a helpful exercise to point out what strategies and approaches you think the players should be taking (both mafia and town). But I guess we'll have to sit tight until things start picking up and adapt from there.

"Let's talk about irrelevant things in ace's game! This set-up is weird is completely closed so I'm gonna throw it out there that I think everyone has some sort of ability."

Why does Bumatlarge think everyone has a role? In Ace's previous closed game(closed casket), mafia had 4 power roles. I was mafia, and it made me immediately think that every town player had a power role. I don't understand what motivation Bum would have to post this if he was vanilla town, nor if he was a blue role. Does that mean he's definitely mafia, obviously not... but I'm still keeping an eye on him.

GGQ:
"Given that we have 4/16 mafia, I imagine that you're probably right."

Again, can't read too much into this, but GGQ is kinda painting himself as either blue or red here. There's all sorts of WIFOM that can be read into this(vanilla town trying to draw a hit etc.), and it doesn't mean all that much, but I'm still noting it down on my spreadsheet.

If I'm in this game as a townie I'm talking about set-up/balance discussion right now. Do I really care about the game balance in a closed set-up? Nope. I just want to get people active and down on paper. But if someone is very active discussing balance, and then loses that activity once we start talking about scum....

Given that it's an Ace game Vigilantes are very very likely; Ver I think you're probably correct that suicidal Vigilantes will be in the game. Also, I'd expect a low number of investigative roles, and mafia probably have 3 or 4 power roles: Medic, roleblocker, vig? I would certainly advise town to not roleclaim, as if mafia have no roleblocker I'd be surprised. Ace loves roleblockers...

As far as all the random voting going on, if any one of those players still has that vote placed as we get down to the end of the day then their getting a big strike on my spreadsheet.

I was a little curious about bum's post as well Radfield.

I'm inclined to say that the vast majority of people who have voted already are town. It's rare for a mafia to jump the gun on day one and start pointing fingers. The list of people that have voted in order from earliest to latest are: Curu, JeeJee, iGrok, wherebugsgo, sinani206, xtfftc, Palmar. And wow I just realized that's nearly half the town. There's a 3 hour gap between sinani and xtfftc voting however, so I'd be inclined to say Curu, JeeJee, iGrok, wherebugsgo, and sinani are town candidates at the moment. Although I'm keeping in the back of my mind that Curu voted near the start of day 1 as mafia in XLIV

Town needs someone to step up and actually post something meaningful...

Radfield wrote:Town needs someone to step up and actually post something meaningful...

Indeed.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=261732&currentpage=7#121

I really like this post from GGQ. Seems to be a real town-oriented post, especially the way he says "cut the crap". This kind of post can lead the town in the right direction (assuming he follows through).

I definitely think iGrok is townie lol. Doesn't seem like the type of mafia that would post something like this:

On September 07 2011 13:25 iGrok wrote:
Lets do this


With a smurf in the game, I have nothing to base your actions off of. I want you to contribute a lot, so that I can get a good read off of you.

Until then, you make me uncomfortable.

##Vote Bayonet Anderson

I'm waiting to see Palmar post more... could just be early, but the fact that he's not tearing town discussion up and making himself the center of attention makes me think he could be trying to hide something.

I agree that GGQ is looking somewhat green, and bum is looking ever-so-slightly a shade of red, but it's still too early to make any hard and fast decisions about anyone. Disappointed there isn't more activity going on, to be honest. I would have thought given the experience level of most people in this game, there would be more.

Maybe this is just the effects of not having slept but I'm having a hard time understanding why a townie ggq would've made those posts. What's the objective in posting such a lengthy reply for such an insignificant matter, then following it up with some doubt thrown around for inconsequential reasons. Those posts are clearly not the typical 'gut townie reacting to the moment' style either.

Veritus wrote:Maybe this is just the effects of not having slept but I'm having a hard time understanding why a townie ggq would've made those posts. What's the objective in posting such a lengthy reply for such an insignificant matter, then following it up with some doubt thrown around for inconsequential reasons. Those posts are clearly not the typical 'gut townie reacting to the moment' style either.

I'm not sure I fully agree Ver. GGQ was being blatantly misrepresented, and I agree with dealing with things like that quickly and effectively before mafia and lazy townies jump on the wagon. That said I can see mafia or town posting like he has so far.

Sandro is posting well... but something seems a little bit off to me at the moment. We'll see if his activity level stays high.



xtfftc wrote: ".... I'm a bad player but this is something we all know...."

Things like this stick out like a sore thumb. Any player that talks about how bad they are gets a few extra scum points...

Anyone have any thoughts on JeeJee? It feels like he's grasping at straws with the GGQ thing.

Just realized that xtffct popped up to contribute immediately after Sandro FoSed him. Actively lurking or coincidence? If he starts lurking someone should FoS him tomorrow and see if he pops up to defend himself again.

Radfield wrote:

Veritus wrote:Maybe this is just the effects of not having slept but I'm having a hard time understanding why a townie ggq would've made those posts. What's the objective in posting such a lengthy reply for such an insignificant matter, then following it up with some doubt thrown around for inconsequential reasons. Those posts are clearly not the typical 'gut townie reacting to the moment' style either.

I'm not sure I fully agree Ver. GGQ was being blatantly misrepresented, and I agree with dealing with things like that quickly and effectively before mafia and lazy townies jump on the wagon. That said I can see mafia or town posting like he has so far.

Sandro is posting well... but something seems a little bit off to me at the moment. We'll see if his activity level stays high.



xtfftc wrote: ".... I'm a bad player but this is something we all know...."

Things like this stick out like a sore thumb. Any player that talks about how bad they are gets a few extra scum points...

Not a question of what but how. It's the first few hours of day 1 and nothing has happened; it's really no big deal and it certainly doesn't warrant a mammoth post that in the end doesn't say that much and offers no solid conclusions, just some very tentative statements.

On other matters, I think the town should adopt a policy of auto lynching the first person to say OMGUS or scumtell or some other generic buzzword that doesn't actually mean anything but is easy to throw around.

Radfield wrote:"Let's talk about irrelevant things in ace's game! This set-up is weird is completely closed so I'm gonna throw it out there that I think everyone has some sort of ability."

Why does Bumatlarge think everyone has a role? In Ace's previous closed game(closed casket), mafia had 4 power roles. I was mafia, and it made me immediately think that every town player had a power role. I don't understand what motivation Bum would have to post this if he was vanilla town, nor if he was a blue role. Does that mean he's definitely mafia, obviously not... but I'm still keeping an eye on him.

This quote really doesn't say anything either way. Even if mafia would be thinking "there are going to be a lot of blue roles", why would they let the town know this information? That just invites town to discuss and organize. Perhaps it is a blue fishing attempt, but I just see it as an attempt to start the discussion. Notice how this is one of the only two posts during the first part of the day that could potentially spark discussion. Given that there were no other hot topics when bum posted this, this post seems to invite discussion rather than scream "I'm hiding!". (Also, closed game != no flip game!)

Activity this game is slow, but there are definitely things to talk about. Other than bum, the other post that stuck out to me is iGrok's vote on BayonnetAnderson, which chaoser kindly pointed out. I wouldn't hastily jump to the conclusion that iGrok is town (could very well be that he is afraid of smurfs), but discussion of the smurf with regards to activity is very valid. Smurfs are people who go out of their way to conceal their identity, so its highly unlikely that they will go inactive.

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On GGQ and JeeJee. JeeJee's behavior can be easily explained as a self-deluded townie who wants to make things happen even if it isn't correct. xtfftc nicely pointed out how GGQ's terse posts have been consistent, while JeeJee has been trying to paint GGQ as emotional.

Note: I've been kinda writing a response as I'm reading the thread, which you guys shouldn't do. I've had to erase a bunch of stuff because players commented on it further down where I hadn't read yet

Although GGQ is definitely overreacting, his responses have been completely logical. JeeJee, bumatlarge, and chaos13 have all popped up in succession misrepresenting GGQ's posts. If you look at GGQ's posts as a whole, his mentality and approach to the game are consistent over time. He pokes holes, asks questions, and makes very blunt to-the-point posts that seek to decipher players actions and bring more information to the table.

Notice how he's made enemies with pretty much everyone in the thread. He easily made enemies with JeeJee/bumatlarge, and before that made some blunt remarks to xtfftc when xtfftc was doing his accuse-everyone post. Furthermore, after xtfftc semi-defends GGQ in this post, GGQ turns around and questions why xtfftc called his posting fake. Think about it for a second. Here, there is no indication that GGQ cares about his wellbeing or is trying to gain support. He is exhibiting some pretty wreckless play and is taking the huge risk of making everyone his enemy. If GGQ is a mafia "overreacting" to accusations, why is he attacking a player who stood up for him? Panicked mafia players are focused on self-preservation. They don’t want to make enemies. GGQ throws that out the window and is content to continue poking holes, asking questions, and hunting for information.

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Radfield wrote:xtfftc wrote: ".... I'm a bad player but this is something we all know...."

Things like this stick out like a sore thumb. Any player that talks about how bad they are gets a few extra scum points...

You are taking this quote out of context. Include the full quote:

"On a serious note, the problem with your argument is that I got into trouble in XLIV precisely because of the very same behaviour: accusing four players in no time. The only thing you can read in this is that I'm a bad player but this is something we all know."

This is a classic example of missing the subtleties and focusing on the what, not how. Its easy to remember Ver's XXX analysis, where he pins Misder on overemphasizing his noobiness. But why is this mafia oriented behavior? Its not solely because he admits to being a bad player. Its a combination of 1) constantly emphasizing your uselessness while 2) saying nothing of value and being indecisive in order to make people ignore you.

Does xtfftc do this? No, he doesn't overemphasize the fact that he's a "bad player", he just states it once to give an alternative explanation for his play (early string of accusations with questionable basis). He also says plenty of value. His post clearly states his opinion of bum, GGQ, and JeeJee without fear or hesitation. Does xtfftc seem like he is trying to be ignored? No, it seems clear that he is trying to figure things out. Is he doing it in an unorthodox way? Yes, but just look at PYP Insane. Kavdragon, deconduo, and I were all playing questionably with an intent to figure stuff out. Does this clear xtfftc? Certainly not. I'm especially curious about this relationship between GGQ and xtfftc. The timing and interaction between these two players is quite odd. I'll see what you guys have to say about it first before commenting further on that.

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Jackal and Curu need to be shot or burned at the stake.

I think I would probably have more to say, but I'm going to take a break now.

Oh I also am curious about Foolishness's assertion that all the posters are town. If I were playing this game, I would make a similar statement just to see what happens. The pot has definitely been stirred, yet a large amount of people are curiously silent. Something is up with that.

Reporting in, I'm going to read up on the thread before reading what has been said here, and I'll post anything I find later.

Also, in hilariously (to me) meta fashion, I would like to say that we should try to keep this thread a good environment. Posting every thought you have is not a good idea, as by the same token as in game, we will clutter things up and the better posts will go un-noticed. Perhaps not as much, but still, I think it's a good idea.

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Looking through the thread the first post that caught my attention was iGrok's first post with the big green banner "let's do this". It reminded me of a post almost exactly the same as it where pre-game I started witting up a big helpful post for the town, trying to get some good topics for discussion, then found out I would be mafia, scrapped it, and put in something else instead.

Not a strong read off of that, but I don't take that first real vote as being a town tell to me. There were many productive things that would have lived up to the title "let's do this", and instead he posts a poorly reasoned pressure vote.

Intentional or not, he started posting nonsense votes after the day post, a time when it would have been profitable and easy for the town to stop that nonsense, and move on from the pre-game spam. Instead, he started it up again. I don't know if that was his intent, but I believe it was the effect, and that is a strike against him.

But enough on that first post. Sandroba calls him out on it, and he get's a little defensive at first. Honestly, I don't think I would have even replied to Sandro's post, but he does, and includes the line "I'm a little on edge anyways" Which strikes me as a stupidly obvious red/blue slip, almost to the point of it being a claim.

iGrok continues to defend himself against Sandroba even though nobody else seems to be paying attention. This strikes me as overly defensive. That coupled with the fact that in a game where three people are wagoning GGQ already, and nobody is jumping on iGrok makes me think he's scum.

From my perspective, iGrok would have seemed like a easier BW than GGQ.

I don't think any of this is strong enough to lynch him by, but it's something that would certainly make me look closer.


Oh, and I almost forgot:

On September 08 2011 12:00 iGrok wrote:

On September 08 2011 11:52 sandroba wrote:
Man iGrok, why so dodgy? Is it wrong of me to interrogate you to try to determine your aligment? You sure don't like the heat do you?

Nope, I don't. Deal with it.

Why don't you think GGQ is scum?

This makes no sense. Not from any perspective really. Unless he's a veteran. Unless it's a really bad slip, I'm not sure what would drive anyone to say that.
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On a side note, GGQ's wagon makes me suspect he's town, and Wherebugsgo's disappearance after a particularly active pre-game is suspect.
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Having finished the thread, Chaos13 looks really, really scummy to me. He hops on GGQ's bandwagon once JeeJee and Bumatlarge have started it, and uses poor logic to try to condemn him. His logic is full of holes and he contradicts himself several times as he goes along.

This would make perfect sense to me for mafia behaviour, because he avoided all the voting at the beginning, and stayed out of that potentially dangerous time, and then comes in with an easy accusation on someone who is already being pressured. The timing makes sense because he's able to pressure a townie, but is perfectly safe from being accused of being "the one" who lynched the townie.

His arguments misinterpret GGQ's posts in almost comical ways, calling one defence against JeeJee's arguments an OMGUS attack on JeeJee. He states in this first post against GGQ

You're looking like a good first lynch right about now.

but doesn't place a vote. Why would you not place a vote on someone who you think is a good lynch?

GGQ spots this, and points it out, and Chaos13 starts backpeddling

Did I encourage anyone else to vote for you? No. They can make that decision themselves. There's no need for me to place my vote yet until we generate some more discussion. I'm simply warning you that if your play continues this way, I will vote for you before the day is over.

There is no reason for posting an argument against someone, and accusing them of being scum, unless you are trying to convince someone of being scum. The way that he continues to push for GGQ's lynch while distancing himself from it screams mafia much more than iGrok ever did.

Town is in trouble

TheAwesomeall, BayonnetAndrerson, Zona, Mig and Sinani haven't posted at all or at least anything of substance.

Not to mention about 4 other players who have no real posts...

Chances of a lynch today are looking slim...

This sort of lull in the discussion is exactly what the mafia need right now. At this point in the day, the "oh no, it's majority lynch" mindset will kick in, and the town won't look at any other targets. If I were mafia, I'd start saying things like "the only feasible lynch is GGQ, and we can't no lynch cause that's anti-town, so everyone vote GGQ". It seems to me that recent towns have been struggling to use the majority lynch to their benefit, so that's what I would target first. If GGQ is not mafia, then we should see it pretty clearly in the next few hours, based on whether he is bandwagoned.

BayonnetAnderson's post is interesting but I'm not quite convinced until iGrok responds. Remembering the motto, "Blues are scared, mafia are hesitant", it almost seems more fitting to call iGrok blue. I'm not seeing the 'doubt' in iGrok's posting that BA is claiming (at least not yet).

It's interesting how iGrok called him a smurf and voted for him as soon as the game started (he probably is), and then BA chooses to go after him.

...with majority votes a single vote means nothing.

Am i the only one who is struck by this as being really wrong? A single vote will do nothing, yes, but how else are you going to pressure someone? You build a strong case to pressure someone, then vote for them. If you have reason to believe someone is scum, there is no reason to not vote them. The journey to a majority vote starts with one vote.

It looks like he's trying too hard to me, but at the same time if I were mafia i would NEVER be the one to break the silence, as he seems to be trying to do right now. This lull is great for mafia.

Edit: lol, anyone want to guess who BA is? It took one guess.