Some Mafia Game Day 1

GMarshal? Format of that post is so similar to the one TheFerryman made that it almost feels intentional I'm guessing you know who he is now since you wrote 'It took one guess'? I would appreciate it if you enlightened me also.

While the writing seems quite impressive, it feels to me that he really didn't bring anything new except some evidences that might correspond to the already existing arguments against him (iGrok over-reacted). Doesn't really say anything abut his alignment yet, but if he really is GMarshal, I'd become much more suspicious of him if he kept his pressure solely on iGrok day 2. Even when he tried to lynch Mr. Wiggles on previous Cosmic Horror Mafia without much success, at least he tried to publicly make a commitment to look over JeeJee.

Also how common is the no lynch around here? If it's relatively frequent I could understand bum's reply as fearful townie, but it's kind of bothersome. I think it's because it unnecessarily weakens the chance of GGQ lynch. Why do that if he is "more suspicious of GGQ then iGrok"?

Edit: Apparently I cannot post external links or emails for 7 days

Kavdragon wrote:If I were mafia, I'd start saying things like "the only feasible lynch is GGQ, and we can't no lynch cause that's anti-town, so everyone vote GGQ"

Bumatlarge wrote:I'm feeling pretty good about GGQ or iGrok, unless anyone has some serious issues with the two, I think everyone should start putting your vote on one or the other.

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but that sounds like a anti-town thing to say. Townies should never be that satisfied with lynches, especially when there has been so little discussion thus far.

Posting links should now work.

iGrok - BayonnetAnderson's post is unconvincing. He gets good points about discomfort, nervousness, and wanting to shy away from the spotlight. Sure he is being mysterious and isn't giving up much information, but this is consistent with blue play. I had the same initial reaction as Foolishness that iGrok looks more blue than red.

BayonnetAnderson claims that iGrok is "unnecessarily defensive", but I don't see anything like that. Sandroba was really the one who came out of nowhere and claimed that iGrok was "going out of his way to justify his vote". Really there's nothing wrong with iGrok's vote, as I've stated previously, and its a nice way to get the discussion going.

"I consider that a valid reason to vote. With no setup knowledge other than my own role, I'm a little on edge anyways."

This isn't overly defensive, it seems more like a whimsical "why not" vote much like JeeJee. Concerning the "edginess", why would mafia emphasize this anyway? BayonnetAnderson also tries to compare this first iGrok post to his post in XLIV, which is flawed in many ways. First, iGrok was a replacement in that game and came in well past day 1. In contrast, this post is basically the second meaningful post in this game. Of course its not going to be possible for iGrok to make such bold claims as in XLIV, unless he's trying to pull an xtfftc.

BA does a nice comparison of iGrok's current posting to his posting in XLIV, but he doesn't compare it to anytime when iGrok is mafia. Taking a look at iGrok's posts from TL Mafia XL where he was the Godfather, and notice how it totally does not fit iGrok's behavior in this game. He has long posts. He is actively involved in the town affairs and even takes the lead. Sure there is a lot of fluff (haikus and random advice here and there, but he acts open, invites people to give his opinion of himself, and isn't afraid to give analysis or actively misdirect the town. There are plenty of hints that iGrok is red in that game, but he certainly doesn't exhibit the same qualities he does in this game.

iGrok's posts should be a focal point of interest to this game, because he doesn't fit either his town or mafia style. Another key to note here is the fact that he hasn't voted yet, and he hasn't given any opinions yet. Unless iGrok and GGQ are both mafia, it would seem very easy for a red iGrok to deflect attention to GGQ instead of continuing to defend himself and banter with sandroba. Something is not right here. More information is necessary in order to make a conclusion.

I personally think iGrok is purposely trying to act quirky to avoid getting hit by the mafia, but of course that is just conjecture.

At this point I'd agree that iGrok looks Blue. The timid nature that he is showing under pressure paints him blue because he's not voting. If he were red, he'd be all over the GGQ bandwagon (assuming ggq isn't red), and even then, he'd be voting someone else, but he's not. He says there's not enough to go on.

It's funny, cause one of the arguments brought up against GGQ was that he was shifting the suspicion to someone else, and that's exactly what iGrok is NOT doing. The fact that BA is mis-reading this situation like this makes me mildly suspicious of him.

(Also, I again don't understand this concept of a random vote pressuring someone. it never pressures someone. Only a real case will. I would much rather have one person voting for me, than someone analyzing my play and bringing arguments against me. one vote counts for nothing regardless of majority. It's only when you get a legitimate case that you can move more than just your own vote onto someone.)

Atmosphere is bad, no surprise a green dies from that kind of classic zero evidence bandwagon. However, there are some gems:

bum is mafia.

On September 09 2011 08:50 bumatlarge wrote:

wherebugsgo(1) - sinani206

sinani206(1) - xtfftc

chaos13(1) - Palmar

Mig(1) - TheAwesomeAll

Palmar(1) - Mig

All of these votes are useless. Switch now please or make a better case.

I think TheAwesomeAll is mentally ill, but not mafia. Dont know him, so what do I care. Sporadic townie, we could do without him. iGrok is very active, which doesn't say much, I think he's always active. BA was very accurate that iGrok's posts have a distinct aura of fear and discomfort, different from what you usually see him post. GGQ's posts pales in comparison, where GQQ could very well have been misunderstood in one post, where as iGrok has betrayed his position multiple times.

##Unvote
##Vote iGrok

On September 09 2011 11:26 bumatlarge wrote:

On September 09 2011 10:52 wherebugsgo wrote:
One of Palmar/Mig is scum methinks. IMO it might be Mig, because Palmar actually did defend townies in XLIV (I distinctly remember him giving Sevryn 0.2% chance to flip town) and he defended hiro and xt as well.

In cosmic I feel like he did the same but Palmar was alive when I wasn't in the game and I don't remember too well ATM (not quoting stuff cause I'm on my phone)

Would Mig purposely forget these things or is he just being ignorant as town? Iunno but from what I understand about his town play...neither is a likely town explanation.

Anyway, at the current lynches:

I say we keep it between TAA and iGrok. Either is an acceptable lynch to me but I'm not sold on GGQ. I'll switch off iGrok if we require lynching assistance

I share your suspicions of the two. Let's keep it in mind for tomorrow.

##Unvote
##vote: TheAwesomeAll

He goes from TAA is dumb town to voting him with no additional reason lol. Doesn't discuss him whatsoever earlier. The argument of 'he wanted the lynch to happen' doesn't hold because he specifically said TAA was town 3 hrs before voting him. Doesn't seem to care about the town either. Bum is not that incompetent.

Just read the thread and I am now fairly suspicious of wherebugsgo. It was this post, specifcally the part "He was an acceptable lynch to me simply because everyone else thinks he's scum and everyone else here is much better than me" that initially caught my attention, and the fact that he addresses it again on the next post of his:

I feel TAA will flip town because the bandwagon on him started too fast. No one has been defending him. That's just weird to me. Am I sure of it? No, obviously not, precisely because everyone else seems to be so confident about him being scum.

I filtered his name on TL Mafia XLIV because that is the only game I know where he is town-aligned, and even when he is blue role wherebugsgo is much more aggressive than this than deferring to the main judgment of the town. The sentence

I think/thought TAA is an acceptable lynch because everyone else thinks so.

sums up what I am trying to say pretty well. How can you think and no longer think TTA is acceptable lynch at the same time? WBG is essentially being wishy-washy about how he now think TAA is likely townie, but not really because everyone else is apparently better than him and that they are confident of their judgment. Which is weird because when I look over the post where people voted TAA they are indeed mostly bandwagon votes; I don't see the confidence he states.

Wherebugsgo's current behaviour just do not match up to what he did on first day of TL Mafia XLIV, where he was one of the players that tried to change the lynch from Sevryn to TheRayzor when he was dissatisfied of where the majority was heading.
Now I'm keeping on mind that WBG filter on Mafia XLIV tells incomplete tale due to lack of context, and that WBG is aggressively picking on fight with Curu, which creates spotlight which mafia often wishes to avoid. However I think this is something worth noting.

Does this mean that GGQ is mafia then? The town would have arived at a TAA lynch without help from the mafia. So did the mafia push/vote for TAA because GGQ was mafia, or because they wanted a lynch to happen. In either case, i agree that there is a good amount of information revealed by this lynch.

Edit: Zona's recent quad-post makes me almost certain that he's town.

Zona caught the bum thing but he isn't pressing the issue.

Well, Bayonnet (Zona?) just forced the iGrok issue in a hilarious way.

I love Ace games.

Beautiful post by Zona on bumatlarge

Palmar is Mafia

On September 09 2011 09:27 Palmar wrote:
there isn't much to go on with TAA, the thing is he agrees with me mig is very likely scum, it could be an attempt to distance himself or something.

But he usually doesn't lurk and one-line this hard as town. There is another thing that I'm leaning town on Bumatlarge too, so his vote on Bum makes no sense to me, I think I'm down with lynching TAA yeah. I actually like him better than GGQ, and iGrok is almost definitely not scum.

let's do it.

##Unvote Mig
##Vote TheAwesomeAll

Compare it to this post from TL Mafia XLIV (Palmar was town):

On August 21 2011 09:22 Palmar wrote:
I'd like to apologize to everyone that I wasn't able to convince you. No lynching is not going to happen, we're just going to be having exactly the same conversation tomorrow.

Again, sorry I couldn't push the thread in the right direction, I'll take the blame for it when sevryn flips town.

##Unvote
##Vote Sevryn

In the first, Palmar states his position that "mig is very likely scum", but ends up voting TheAwesomeAll. What is Palmar trying to do in this post? He is looking for a justification for switching his vote to TheAwesomeAll. Compare it to the next post from TL Mafia XLIV, and you'll see a totally different character.

Palmar takes all the responsibility for the lynch, is very direct in saying what he's doing (avoiding a no lynch), and apologizes for not being more forceful in pushing his agenda. He is a completely transparent spotlight oriented townie, and doesn't try to justify anything.

SMG Palmar doesn't stick to his convictions, and is trying to hide his vote switch to make it look convincing. XLIV Palmar just cares about getting things done without caring about how he looks.

The cherry on top is the post immediately following his vote:

On September 09 2011 09:28 Palmar wrote:
rofl, chaos13 doesn't think TAA is scum. Chaos is always wrong so TAA must be scum!

Please tell me why a townie would ever make this kind of post. The answer "its a joke post" doesn't count, since the timing of this clearly indicates that it isn't a joke post (it immediately follows Palmar's vote and vote justification).

Other points:

1) Palmar's posts show no coherence - he flip flops about lynch targets and plays the politician when it comes to pointing out mafia.
2) There are no real analyses to support any of his accusations or "opinions"
3) Gives zero insight into the GGQ lynch, besides useless comments like:

On September 08 2011 19:06 Palmar wrote:
I don't know about GGQ, the rest are just derp votes.

On September 09 2011 05:51 Palmar wrote:
GGQ is by far the better alternative.

On September 09 2011 09:06 Palmar wrote:
I'm gonna re-read ggq's posts, iGrok is almost definitely town, so if it comes to it I'll rather support a ggq lynch

On September 09 2011 09:27 Palmar wrote:
I actually like him better than GGQ, and iGrok is almost definitely not scum.

On September 09 2011 09:34 Palmar wrote:
I said GGQ was less bad a lynch, but that's because iGrok has like ~5% chance of flipping scum.

There is a lot more evidence strengthen the case, but my throbbing headache is telling me I should save that for later.

4. Avoids the spotlight
5. Takes no responsibility - conveniently silent after TheAwesomeAll flips green
6. Conveniently dismisses everything Mig says, by saying "not going to argue with scum". Zero explanation. He also conveniently keeps pushing Mig later in the thread.

Palmar isn't trying to figure stuff out, doesn't care about the town, and is just stirring the pot.

On September 11 2011 18:27 Palmar wrote:
I don't agree with any case on Bumatlarge, I think I've gotten a grasp on how he plays town and how he plays scum, this is almost purely based on his day 1 posting, I'm pretty sure scumatlarge doesn't play like he did on day one, so let's rule him out.

Add that as an interesting connection, and decent confirmation that both are scum.

On that note, I think I'll make a node-graph of everyone's voting/suspicions to look for inconsitancies, cause there seem to be an inordinate amount of them surrounding that first lynch.

Okey. This is a bit big, but here you go.

Suspicious players based off of this:
Wherebugsgo
Palmar
Bumatlarge
Jackal
(Sandroba)

Sinani: Only talks about himself doesn't contribute. Probably just a bored townie. (Not pressing mafia agenda, suspicious because of lying about not being around to vote, but otherwise seems like bored townie)

Spoiler:

BayonnetAnderson: Sticks to his convictions. Probably town.

Spoiler:

Curu: nothing much. No inconsistencies, sticks with his target, but doesn't tunnel. Seems oddly transparent, and gives off a town read to me.

Spoiler:

Zona: Convinced of TAA's innocence, doesn't vote him. Nothing that unusual. Points out many inconsistencies and otherwise seems to contribute a lot. Likely town.

Spoiler:

Chaos13: States early on that JeeJee is as suspicious as his current lynch target GGQ, turns out JJ has two posts, so Chaos13 backs off after looking at his posts. Says TAA is town, doesn't vote him. Seemed to try really hard to paint GGQ early on, leaning mafia, but not a strong read either way.

Spoiler:

Xtfftc: Says Bum and JeeJee are mafia, backs off of Bum shortly thereafter, says iGrok and GGQ are bad lynches, votes TAA off of questionable reasons. ("TAA is like a bad townie, but I think he's purposefully trolling, so vote: TAA")

Spoiler:

Wherebugsgo: States several times that TAA is probably town, votes TAA. Says Sandro or Curu are almost certainly scum, votes Sinani. Shows no convictions, constantly changing votes and suspicions.

Spoiler:

Sandroba: Pressures iGrok, comes in last second to vote TAA. Probably bored townie going along to make sure that the lynch happens.

Spoiler:

Palmar: Shows lack of focus on anyone being scum, votes for TAA dispite there being "very little" to go on.

Spoiler:

Bumatlarge: Says TAA is not mafia, votes TAA.

Spoiler:

Jackal: Spams a lot. Is generally useless, and votes TAA with little to no reasoning.

Spoiler:

I seemed to have missed Mig and GGQ.

Mig pushes for Palmar for most of the day, when nobody listens, he switches to TAA, doesn't really give a reason, but later says that it was because of the same reason everyone else voted him.

GGQ is pressured a lot early on, but doesn't land a vote till much later, finally voting for iGrok with no reasoning. (Probably just a self preservation vote at that point in the game) His restraint in voting makes me lean town on him, especially when OMGUS would have been so tempting.

I'm already writing a short, separate piece on Town/Scum mistakes. But in the future you should never say "these guys are confirmed based on association" until one of them has flipped Scum/Town. Doing that opens you up to manipulation unless it's something blatantly obvious like dropping votes in to hammer a claimed role without discussion.

Edit: by "never say" I mean "rarely say". What I'm trying to point out here is that catching people by association can lead to very bad things happening if you pursue it too much before one of the players flip.

The main problem for the town seems to be their inability to hold people accountable for anything. gmarsh blowing that vigi shot on igrok was really really bad. Half the town is afk and is getting away with it; Bum basically just comes in to say 'lol i dont care about you guys just about myself' and runs off and almost nobody blinks an eye, and he's certainly not the only one. WBG and Palmar are both creating too more havoc and ruining the towns atmosphere without getting anything done; one of them is almost certain meddling mafia.

Zona not taking action also hurts. If he did get roleblocked and hit night 1, he should be going all out on whoever he suspects (bum).

The town just let sinani die. Literally. When I read through day 2 I didn't feel like anyone really wanted to kill him. And at the same time nobody really wanted to admit that either. I felt like there were multiple people who didn't want to kill him but were too scared (or didn't care) to say anything.

Although 3 people have flipped town, I'm still not ruling out the possibility that there's an abundance of blue roles. It would certainly fit in line considering nearly everyone seems scared to outright accuse someone. And as someone pointed out in game there's probably 3rd party stuff going on.

This post by BayonnetAnderson makes me curious:

On September 11 2011 01:24 BayonnetAnderson wrote:

On September 11 2011 01:19 Curu wrote:
And mister smurf man, now that your tunnel has died who do you find scummy?

Can I get back to you on that? I was making my net of suspects based on iGrok flipping red, I need to go back and reread the thread and try to figure out what I've overlooked.

bleh.

When does he post any insight into what he "overlooked"? He doesn't, and just goes right back to tunneling his next target, Sandroba.

1. iGrok
   
2. wherebugsgo
   
3. sandroba
   
4. sinani206
   
5. JeeJee
   
6. Jackal58
   
7. Palmar
   
8. bumatlarge
   
9. BayonnetAnderson
   
10. Curu
    
11. GGQ
    
12. Zona
    
13. chaos13
    
14. TheAwesomeAll
    
15. xtfftc
    
16. Mig

That's my list. Won't be around the next couple of days. Feel free to discuss, its awfully quiet in here...

LOLOLOL palmer's claim is WAYYYY worse than mine in XLIV and yet no one wants to lynch him for it. "I'm DT, I checked WBG and he came up red, now he flipped blue so I'm insane. I also didn't check my alignment/there was nothing in the roletext telling me I could be insane but I probably am due to the flip inconsistency" is fishy as fuck.

Oh nvm, go sandroba!

Oddly enough, I think xtfftc nailed it dead on with palmar. There is a HUGE discrepancy with his posting/checks if he is a cop.

If you are a DT, you NEVER want to say "this person is 100% scum/town" unless you've checked them, because people will misinturpret them as breadcrumbs. In addition, you don't want to say that sort of thing as a blue in general because it betrays external knowledge and makes you a prime target for mafia KP.

This is exactly what Palmar did. He defended Bum, THEN checked him. He said wbg was 100% scum, THEN checked him. It makes NO sense from a DT's perspective.

Next problem with his claim is the revial. He claims that it's to get more information out there, but what information does he add? He says he's a DT (can't confirm), he got a wrong check, but isn't sure why. If wbg was framed, Bum might actually be innocent. If wbg wasn't framed, then Bum is likly mafia. (Found innocent by an insane cop).

In short, he adds no information to the discussion, and only adds to the confusion.

And the cherry on top?

On September 09 2011 09:27 Palmar wrote:
There is another thing that I'm leaning town on Bumatlarge too

On September 13 2011 18:35 Palmar wrote:
I have an innocent report on bum from night one.

Night 1 is at September 10 2011 17:42. The purpose of a DT, hell, of the entire game, is to find mafia. Not townies. Why would a decently skilled player like Palmar check someone who he thinks is town?

Badly planned fake claim is bad. =[

chaoser wrote:Badly planned fake claim is bad. =[

Now if only the town would see it, and hold him accountable. Where's Zona when you need her?

Interesting. I think when you guys read my unbiased analysis and see the role flips you will laugh. Some of the conclusions you've found are in line with what I think the Town should know.

Incognito wrote:
Palmar
bumatlarge
BayonnetAnderson
xtfftc

That would be a really, really powerful mafia imo. Palmar, Bum, and BA are three of the most experienced players in the game, and while I'd expect one or two in there, all three seems out of balance. Then again, it's Ace's game. Who knows if that's part of the active balance of the game.

I have no idea how many mods re-roll their roles depending on the player distribution, but I know I don't so it is not really that much of an argument. I would consider balance reasons (12-4 with 2KP and mafia dayvig?) to be much more credible. It's pretty clear that Palmar and bumatlarge is bussing each other, though, with their strange role claims and Palmar not voting immediately after hearing the claim that apparently conflicts with his role.

Having been the recipient of scummy actions made by Bum in the past, I'm actually not as sure of his guilt as i was before. The evidence in front of me says scum, but I've got this nagging feeling that it's actually just him playing poorly.

The pgo claim explains the role fishing at the beginning, though I would say that it might have been too obvious. If I were mafia, I would't shoot someone who claimed blue like that.

Voting TAA after saying he was town was scummy, but that's not out of reach for a townie. (see: wbg)

bum is being pretty much useless otherwise, but again, that's not unusual for a townie. Just not a bumatlarge townie.

---

Palmar:

Thankfully Jackal's claims match up with mine, so we actually have something to work with.

I loled when I read this again. Because his "claim" said that bum was green and wbg was red, or wbg was town and bum was red. ANYthing would have fit with his claim. (Hence why it was such a safe, and smart claim to make as mafia. Just use the excuse 'why would mafia make it this complicated?')